Pambuyo pa OPEC + yasankha pa Okutobala 5 kuti achepetse kupanga mafuta ndi migolo 2 miliyoni patsiku kuyambira mu Novembala, kubetcha kwamphamvu pamsika wamtsogolo wamafuta padziko lonse lapansi kudakulanso."Kukhudzidwa ndi OPEC + mabala akuya pakusintha kwakukulu kuwiri kwatsopano, msika wamafuta am'tsogolo tsopano ndiwongoyerekeza kubwereranso ku msika wamafuta amtundu wa ng'ombe, chachiwiri ndi chidziwitso chodziwika bwino cham'malo am'tsogolo, chifukwa adazindikira kuti malinga ngati mitengo yamafuta ili pansi, OPEC + ikhoza kupitilizabe kupanga, mpaka mtengowo ubwereranso pamlingo wawo wozindikirika. "A crude oil futures broker adauza mtolankhani.
Pambuyo pa OPEC + yasankha pa Okutobala 5 kuti achepetse kupanga mafuta ndi migolo 2 miliyoni patsiku kuyambira mu Novembala, kubetcha kwamphamvu pamsika wamtsogolo wamafuta padziko lonse lapansi kudakulanso."Kukhudzidwa ndi OPEC + mabala akuya pakusintha kwakukulu kuwiri kwatsopano, msika wamafuta am'tsogolo tsopano ndiwongoyerekeza kubwereranso ku msika wamafuta amtundu wa ng'ombe, chachiwiri ndi chidziwitso chodziwika bwino cham'malo am'tsogolo, chifukwa adazindikira kuti malinga ngati mitengo yamafuta ili pansi, OPEC + ikhoza kupitilizabe kupanga, mpaka mtengowo ubwereranso pamlingo wawo wozindikirika. "A crude oil futures broker adauza mtolankhani.Malinga ndi zidziwitso zaposachedwa kwambiri za Commodity Futures Trading Commission, malo oyerekeza anthawi yayitali mu Brent ndi WTI crude future adakwera ma contract 53,179 kuchokera sabata yatha kufika 373,467 kuyambira pa Okutobala 4, okwera kwambiri m'masabata 11 apitawa.“
Komabe, CTA strategy Fund ndi commodity investment fund sichinabwererenso kumsika wamafuta osakhazikika, ndikusiya kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta kuchokera pakuchepetsa kwakukulu kwa OPEC +.Wogulitsa mafuta amtundu wa crude mafuta ndi wosamveka.Mgwirizano waukulu wa WTI udakwera kuchokera ku $ 85.4 mpaka $ 93.3 mbiya pambuyo pa OPEC + idachepetsa kupanga ndi migolo ya 2 miliyoni patsiku, koma idabwereranso pafupifupi $ 89 pomwe index ya dollar idakwera masiku awiri apitawa, adawonetsa Datayes."Kuopa dola yamphamvu ndiyenso chifukwa chachikulu chomwe ndalama zamafuta amtundu wautali, monga ndalama za CTA ndi ndalama zamalonda, zachedwa kupezerapo mwayi pa OPEC + ndikuchepetsa kupanga kuti zibwerere kumsika wautali wam'tsogolo wamafuta."Helima Croft, wamkulu wa njira zapadziko lonse lapansi ku BC Capital Markets.Pakalipano, akuyembekezera kuti awone ndani amene adzapambane nkhondo pakati pa OPEC ndi dola yamphamvu kuti asankhe chisankho chotsatira.Zou Zhiqiang, wofufuza ku Center for Middle East Studies ku Fudan University, akukhulupirira kuti Saudi Arabia ndi mayiko ena a OPEC + adaganiza zochepetsera mphamvu zopanga ndi 2 miliyoni b/d, makamaka potengera zofuna za dziko lawo.Izi ndichifukwa choti amafunikira mitengo yamafuta kuti ikhale yokwera kuti awapatse ndalama zambiri zothandizira chuma chawo.Koma palibe kukayikira kuti izi zikuwononga zofuna za America.Chifukwa chakuti US ikugwiritsa ntchito dola yamphamvu kutsitsa mitengo yamafuta, potero kuchepetsa kukwera kwa mitengo ya US.
Oyang'anira angapo a Wall Street hedge fund adauza atolankhani kuti kunali koyambirira kwambiri kuti aneneretu zotsatira za nkhondo yatsopano ya ufulu wokhazikitsa mitengo pamsika wamafuta opanda mafuta.Koma zomwe zikuwonekera ndizakuti OPEC + sidzalekerera mitengo yotsika yamafuta kwa nthawi yayitali kuti iwononge zofuna zake zazikulu.Izi zapangitsa kuti osunga ndalama ambiri omwe amabetcherana pa dollar agunde kukwera kwatsopano kuti apewe kubetcha kwakukulu pamitengo yotsika yamafuta, podziwa kuwopsa kwa mfundo zomwe zikukulirakulira.Atolankhani adazindikira kuti pa Okutobala 5, OPEC + idaganiza zochepetsa kupanga mafuta osakanizidwa ndi migolo 2 miliyoni patsiku, zomwe zidapangitsa chidwi chogula pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi wamafuta osakanizika."M'mbuyomu, mphamvu yamitengo pamsika wamtsogolo wamafuta inali pafupifupi yolamulidwa ndi ndalama zochulukirapo, zomwe zidayendetsedwa kwathunthu ndi kugulitsa kwakanthawi kochepa kwamitengo yamafuta pamaso pa kukwera kwatsopano kwa dola, mosasamala kanthu za kusintha kwa mafuta ndi zofunikira zofunika. ”Ogulitsa mafuta amtundu wamtsogolo adauza atolankhani.Izi zapangitsa kuti osunga ndalama ambiri omwe amakhulupirira kuti mitengo yamafuta ndiyotsika mtengo kuti asachoke.M'malingaliro ake, izi ndi zomwe olamulira akufuna.Ndi chifukwa chakuti dola yamphamvu imapangitsa kuti mitengo ya mafuta ikhale yotsika, zomwe zingachepetse kwambiri kutsika kwa mitengo ya US.Komabe, ndi lingaliro la OPEC + lochepetsa kupanga ndi migolo 2 miliyoni patsiku, momwe zinthu zilili pano zandalama zomwe zikulamulira mitengo yamtsogolo yamafuta "zathetsedwa".M'sabata yapitayi, kuchuluka kwandalama zongopeka komanso zoyendetsedwa ndi zochitika zidalowa kuti zisakasaka mitengo yapansi, ndikukankhira mgwirizano waukulu wa WTI kupitilira $90 mbiya.Chiwonetsero cha data cha Tonly Datayes, ndalama zongoyerekeza zamtsogolo zamtsogolo zamafuta osakanizidwa kuti zigule mafunde, kukwera kuyambira kumapeto kwa Seputembala, pomwe zongoyerekeza zamsika za OPEC +, kapena kupanga kwakukulu, kupangitsa kuti ndalama zitheke, mtengo waukulu wa mgwirizano wamafuta a WTI watsika. kunja kamodzi kuposa 13%, ndipo ngakhale ndalama zongopeka zambiri "kunyalanyaza" dola kukhala ndi zotsatira za mitengo yamafuta, Lumphani ndikugula mtengo wamafuta.Kunena zoona, index ya dollar idangotsika kuchoka pa 114.78 mpaka 113.12 m'masabata awiri apitawa, pomwe mgwirizano waukulu wa WTI wabwerera kuchokera ku $ 76.25 mpaka $89 mbiya."Kumbuyo kwa izi, ndalama zongopeka zikuchulukirachulukira ndikubetcha kuti tsogolo lamafuta libwerera ku $95- $100 / BBL pamaziko okhazikika kuchokera ku dollar yamphamvu.Chifukwa ndi zomwe OPEC + ikufuna kuwona.
The crude oil futures broker kusanthula adatero.Akudziwanso kuti OPEC +, poyang'anizana ndi kuphwanyidwa kwa dola yamphamvu pamitengo yamafuta, ikhoza kuchitapo kanthu monga kutsika kwakukulu kwamafuta kuti athandizire mitengo yamafuta, kupangitsa njira yogulira pansi kukhala yopambana.Atolankhani adaphunziranso kuti sabata yatha, kubetcherana ambiri ku Federal Reserve kuti apitilize kukweza ndalama za hawkish ndikulowa nawo mwakachetechete kumsasa wogula pansi kuti agule mitengo yamafuta.Chifukwa akukhulupirira kuti Fed iyenera kupitiliza njira yake yokwera mitengo ya hawkish bola ngati kubweza kwa mitengo yamafuta kumapangitsa kuti mitengo yamafuta ikhale yokwera kwambiri ku US, amalipidwa ndi kubweza kochulukirapo pamsika wotengera chiwongola dzanja.Chifukwa chiyani ng'ombe zamtundu wamafuta zakhala zikuchedwa kulowa Ndizofunikira kudziwa kuti misika yazachuma ilinso ndi nkhawa kuti OPEC+'s 200-bpd kuchepetsa kupanga kwamafuta kudzakhala ndi kuchuluka kwamitengo yamafuta."M'masiku awiri apitawa, dola yamphamvu yabwereranso, kutumiza mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya WTI kutsika itagunda $93 mbiya."Ogulitsa mafuta amtsogolo adauza atolankhani mosapita m'mbali.Chifukwa chake ndikuti ndalama zochulukirachulukira zitangoyamba kubweza ndalama za dollar, zidakwera mwachangu m'tsogolo lamafuta osakanizika, zomwe zidapangitsa kutsika kofananira kwamitengo yamafuta.M'malingaliro ake, poganizira kuti kuchuluka kwachuma kumakhala pafupifupi 30% ya kuchuluka kwa malonda pamsika wamafuta osakanizika, kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta kuchokera pakuchepetsa kwakukulu kwa OPEC + kudzakhala "kwanthawi yayitali" ngati mafuta amtundu wautali, monga monga ndalama za njira za CTA ndi ndalama zamtengo wapatali, sizibwerera kumsika wamtsogolo wamafuta.
Mtsogoleri wa thumba la njira la Wall Street CTA adauza atolankhani kuti ngakhale akhala akukhulupirira kuti mitengo yamafuta ndi yocheperako, akadali osamala kwambiri poyang'anizana ndi mwayi wogula phindu womwe umabwera chifukwa cha kuchepa kwakukulu kwa OPEC +.Akuda nkhawa kuti OPEC + sangathenso kunena pamtengo wamafuta.Vuto ndiloti tsogolo la mafuta osakanizidwa ndi mitengo yamtengo wapatali mu madola, ndipo malinga ngati Fed ikupitiriza kukweza chiwongoladzanja ndi kutumiza dola kuti ilembe kukwera, mitengo yamafuta osakanizidwa pamapeto pake idzakumana ndi zovuta zotsika kwambiri."Kuonjezera apo, kusokonekera kwa magetsi ku Ulaya kukuchititsa kuti chuma cha ku Ulaya chiwonongeke mofulumira komanso kutsika kwakukulu kwa ndalama zosinthira yuro, zomwe zachititsa kuti chiwerengero cha dollar chikhale chochepa, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mitengo ya mafuta ikhale yotsika kwambiri. ”Iye anayankhula.Palibe ndalama zambiri za njira za CTA ndi ndalama zamtengo wapatali zomwe zabwerera ku malo aatali m'tsogolo lamafuta opanda mafuta, chifukwa china chinali chakuti "amasamala" pogula mwayi watsopano chifukwa cha kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa mitengo yamafuta.
Mtolankhani amamvetsa ambiri, ngakhale ena CTA njira thumba ndi pansi mafuta tsogolo commodity ndalama kulowa, ali ndi ndalama ndi zochepa ndithu, chimodzi mwa zifukwa zofunika, kudyetsedwa anakweza chiwongola dzanja kwambiri chomaliza ndi kupezerapo mwayi kukwera mtengo, kupanga ndalama. ndalama zomwe zilipo ndizochepa kwambiri, ndipo ndizovuta kukhala ndi chikoka chachikulu pakusintha kwamitengo yamafuta."Ichi ndiye chifukwa chofunikira chomwe ndalama zambiri zamalonda ndi ma CTA amakonda kuphonya mwayi wopeza phindu m'malo moika pachiwopsezo, ndikukonda kudikirira zotsatira pakati pa OPEC + ndi dola yamphamvu asanapange chisankho chotsatira.""Anatero a Stephanie Lang, wamkulu wa zachuma ku Homrich Berg.
"Nsalu yathu yopanda nsalu, polypropylene, idapangidwa ndi mafuta opangira mafuta.Mtengo wamafuta wapadziko lonse lapansi udzakhudza mwachindunji mtengo wamtsogolo wazinthu zathu zopangira, ndikukhudza mtengo wa nsalu zathu zosalukidwa.Chonde konzani zowerengera ndi mapulani obwezeretsanso pasadakhale." Anatero Mason ku Henghua Nonwoven.
Nthawi yotumiza: Oct-14-2022
